HOW HOT WILL IT BE? NORTH BAY FORECAST.

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The big weather story this week will be heat, with highs 10 degrees or more above normal for most of Northern California.

First though, a weak cold front is falling apart over Norcal today. The only places in the North Bay with any chance of seeing showers are Mendocino and Lake Counties.

Going into the week, the heat-up will begin Tuesday, and probably peak on Thursday. But hotter than normal temperatures will stay with us into the upcoming weekend. Here is the outlook for Thursday from the European Model. Pretty much captures the thinking. Mid to upper 90s in the hottest spots. Wednesday and Friday will be similar. Way above normal for mid October.

As we mentioned, the heat will continue through the upcoming weekend, with a gradual cooldown late in the week. Highs will be 5-15 degrees above normal for the next week or so across California, depending on location.

The winds don’t look to be too strong during the heat event this week, with northerly winds staying mostly light to moderate. So that’s good news. And the Energy Release Component of fuels in our region, a key indicator of fire danger, looks to remain about average in the wake of our recent (light) rain.

Green is the forecast for the next few days, while the light gray line is the average for the date.

Ok, so when can we expect rain to return? Right now the models are converging on a solution that could bring us showers or rain as low pressure centers move south into California around October 25th-26th.

Of course that’s still 10 days away, so we’ll cross our fingers.

All we can tell right now is that it appears to be trending toward a stormy pattern across the West, including Northern California, during that period.