HOT DAYS COMING. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS. RAIN IN A WEEK?

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Typically hot October weather is in store for the North Bay this week, with highs in 90s inland and up to 80 along the coast by Wednesday. The hot weather should continue through Friday.

As the heat sets in, some moderate offshore winds will kick up, mostly late Tuesday and early Wednesday as a low pressure center moves into the Great Basin and Rockies.

You can see the setup here.

That will bring some gusty offshore winds, especially over the North Bay hills, Wednesday morning.

Pretty moderate winds for this time of year. Although humidity will plunge, our recent light rain will help to moderate fire danger.

One key indicator of that is Energy Release Component of Fuels, which is running below average for this time of year (a key metric of fire danger and fire starts), and is only forecast to reach around average with the string of hot days this week.

So, good news. What about the chance of more rain?

The major forecast models show another deep low pressure center pushing south in about a week, around October 10th. Will it bring us showers? Too early to say but the chance is there.

Here is the European model outlook at present, showing the front reaching us October 9-10.

The National Blend of Models is wettest, at present. It may be an outlier, with most other models showing much less rain reaching the North Bay. We’ll keep an eye on that.