HEAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TUES, WED

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Hot days inland will be with us through Wednesday. The NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for inland areas of the North Bay from Monday through Wednesday. The worst of the heat will be further inland, but the hottest spots of the North Bay will top 100 degrees Tuesday, and perhaps also Wednesday.

Most inland areas will be 90-105 degrees both days, while the immediate coast will be from 65-75 degrees.

On Monday the coastal stratus bank was being compressed as high pressure builds back into California. Also, subtropical moisture was streaming north into the Great Basin and the Sierra Nevada and firing off thundershowers.

For the next two days the position of high and low pressure centers will allow a push of subtropical moisture into California. This surge of moisture will reach its peak late Tuesday into Wednesday, with precipitable water in the atmospheric column reaching 200% of the average for July for the Bay Area and North Bay.

Will we get any showers or thundershowers on Tuesday or Wednesday? It’s very unlikely at this point. We will have plenty of moisture in place but the atmosphere looks to remain quite stable, with very little forcing around to cause thundershowers to form.

In the Sierra it will be a different story as warm moist air is forced upward by the mountain range. Still, a few of the models like the North American high resolution outlook try to bring some showers to the California coast through late Wednesday.

Not likely, but we’ll keep a watch on that.

After Wednesday the good news is that significant cooling will begin, as a trough of low pressure is forecast to sweep into California bringing cooler air from the northwest. By Friday and Saturday highs are actually expected to be slightly below normal for late July!

Stay tuned.