HEAT, SMOKE AND HAZE TUESDAY. IMPROVING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY.

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SHORT TERM

The hottest day of the week will be Tuesday, with very gradual cooling through the upcoming weekend. A Heat Advisory has been issued through this evening for the inland mountains of the North Bay. Surface smoke from the Six Rivers Lightning complex in northwest California will bring hazy skies through Tuesday, with some improvement on Wednesday.

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DETAILS

As of Tuesday midday, air quality was moderate across the North Bay with readings generally from 50-100 on the air quality index. Areas to the north and east were higher, with many in the 100-150 range which is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups.

On Tuesday a plume of surface smoke extended south to the Bay Area and east through the Sacramento Valley. By Wednesday the plume is forecast to weaken over the North Bay, resulting in better air quality.

HEAT FORECAST

The ridge of high pressure will reach a peak Tuesday, when temperatures will top 100 in many parts of the North Bay. It will be almost as hot on Wednesday. Real cooling, back to near normal, will likely not arrive until Saturday or Sunday.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

Some people have been commenting on how the long range temperature outlook for the coming month, something we shared about 10 days ago, seems to be way off. This is partially true. In the past week the models have flipped a bit, gradually shifting toward a forecast for greater heat, especially inland, over the next 30 days. At the same time the North Bay has been somewhat less impacted, as the models continue to suggest that marine influences will keep us close to normal.

This is one likely example of how the models are struggling to keep up with climate change influenced changes in atmospheric circulation, especially atmospheric heating.

Compare this 30 day outlook from the most reliable model, the European Weeklies. The first graphic is from August 4th, followed by the current output, August 16th. The changes are subtle but the trend is clear. One caveat is that the 30 day sample is slightly different in each case, but the trend is unmistakable.

Especially with climate change impacts a growing variable, long range outlooks are unreliable predictors of what’s to come. We’ll keep you updated with additional posts as the forecast for the North Bay evolves in the coming days.