HEAT GIVES WAY TO MAY SHOWERS

Share with Friends

The seasonal weather whiplash looks to continue for the North Bay, first with hot temperatures replacing cold, and now a return to showers and cool weather arriving in the next few days.

NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY 3RD

A cutoff low pressure system will separate from the main flow and wander down the California coast early next week, bringing us showers at times. Not that unusual for April and May, which is “cutoff low season.”

Right now high pressure is centered over the Pacific Northwest.

By Monday May 1st, the high will be shoved east, with the cutoff low spinning up and strengthening along the coast.

This will bring showers, blustery winds, and cooler temperatures in the 60s from Monday through Tuesday as the low moves south just off the coast.

Rain through Wednesday probably won’t amount to much, just one or two tenths of an inch, except in the Sierra.

THURSDAY MAY 4TH AND ONWARD

This is where it gets interesting. All of the forecast models are now showing a potentially stronger storm riding east in the wake of the cutoff low. Here it is on the Canadian forecast, arriving Friday.

There is model and run to run disagreement on the exact track of this storm, and how much rain it will bring.

The models are trending toward forecasting another cutoff low pressure system potentially bringing rain or showers from Friday the 5th all the way through Monday the 8th! This is a week out, so much could and probably will change.

Just be aware that the weekend of the 6th and 7th could be a bit showery and blustery.

Here is the Saturday May 6th outlook from the European model, and the Sunday May 7th outlook from the GFS model.

How much rain are we talking about for the North Bay? Well, unlike the tenth or two we may receive through next Wednesday, the forecast storm from the 5th-8th could bring more significant totals.

Maybe a half to three quarters of an inch for us, with the European model the wettest currently, showing potentially an inch or more across the North Bay by Monday the 8th.

This is the National Blend of Models.

And with the potential for two cutoff lows bringing showers, temperatures look to stay a bit cooler than average for much of California (but not all of the West) over the next 10 days.

We know hot weather is to come, so from a wildfire risk perspective, any rain we wet at this time of the year, even after a wet winter, can be a good thing.

We’ll continue to update the forecast as it evolves over the coming days.