Hang in. Winter Isn't Over Yet.

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As Northern Californians, many of us worry about drought and fires. And rightfully so. But as dry as this winter has been so far, there is also ample reason to believe March and early April will bring a welcome dose of much-needed rain to the region.

Without focusing too much on specific storms, all of the long range models are in agreement that wet weather will begin around the first weekend of March, and continue off and on after that. That is significant, because when all of the major models see the same large scale pattern shift, it usually happens.

Here’s where low pressure is expected to hang out for most of March. (Image 1) That trough off the coast means storms may begin sweeping in from the west, tracking over the ocean instead of over land. That means more rain for us.

Keep in mind that March is usually pretty wet. In fact, for much of Northern California it has been the wettest month in 4 of the past 10 seasons. Here is average snowfall by month in the Sierra, at the Central Sierra Snow Lab at Donner Summit. (Image 2)

Now let’s look at rainfall outlooks. Here is the Euro long range. A wetter than average March for much of our area. (Image 3) (and remember, March is usually a wet month to begin with)

The CFS weekly outlook for March is also wet. Here are predictions for the 2nd half of March. (Images 4 and 5)

When will it all begin? The models are also in pretty good agreement on the first weekend in March. (Images 5 and 6)

The GFS and new GFS version 16 models see substantial rain by the 13th. Other models agree. (Images 7 and 8)

So, hang in here. Even as we enjoy spring-like February weather there is growing evidence that mother nature may still deal Northern California a long-awaited, and much-needed soaking!