Flooding Possible this Week

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Get ready for more rain, as a series of storm systems are inbound to the North Bay Area beginning late on Sunday.

By Thursday afternoon, we may see rises in major rivers and creeks like the Russian River, Napa River, Mark West creek, and Santa Rosa creek.

As of early Sunday, the Pacific Satellite view shows Sunday and Monday’s storm system spinning off the coast, and Tuesday’s approaching from the west.

These storms are being driven by a strong jet stream, which is pushing atmospheric energy east across the North Pacific directly at California.

The next storm will arrive late on Sunday, and will last into Monday, followed by a second storm on Tuesday. As you can see, the brunt of this first storm will be sent to our south by a split jet stream, into central and southern California. Still, as the two systems move inland, we can expect showers and rain off and on through Tuesday. Expect generally a half inch to inch of rain across Sonoma County, most of it coming on Tuesday.

Our more intense rains will arrive on Wednesday, probably in the late afternoon, as several waves of precipitation spin into California. These systems will focus their energy further north, sending the brunt of the storms into northern and central California. All of this rain will fall on already saturated soil here in the North Bay, leading to the chance of increasing runoff and flooding.

Here is a look at the forecast rain from Wednesday into Friday.

As you can see, things really get wet across the region by late Wednesday through Thursday. We can expect several inches of rain over the period, along with the possibility of hydro issues across the North Bay. In fact these storms tap into an atmospheric river pulling moisture from north of Hawaii, and aimed right at central California.

Here is another look at the “fire hose” of moisture directed into California by next Thursday.

By early on Friday, most weather models show the North Bay at 3-5 inches of accumulated rain. As you can see, the storms will soak much of the state, bringing much need rain even to central and southern California. Up to five feet of snow will fall in the Sierra.

For those of us here in the North Bay Area, early Sunday may be a good time to clear the gutters and take down holiday decorations, as most of the coming week should be stormy indeed.