Flash Flood Watch. Debris Flow Warnings. Atmospheric River Arrives Tuesday Afternoon.

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY PM-THURSDAY PM.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STORM ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

As the well advertised AR system organizes in the North Pacific, weather forecasters are warning those close to recent burn scars in Northern and Central California to heed warnings and prepare to evacuate should debris flows and flash flooding occur. A flash flood watch currently in effect may be changed to a flash flood warning on Tuesday. This includes those in, or adjacent to the Walbridge, Glass and Meyers burn areas.

In Sonoma County and the North Bay, the greatest rain rates will likely occur overnight Tuesday into midday Wednesday, with heavy rain continuing off and on into early Thursday. Those in proximity to recent burn scars should prepare now. Forecasters do not expect mainstem rivers like the Russian to flood, but do expect some small streams and creeks to potentially reach flood stage, and localized urban flooding to occur.

The latest satellite image shows the storm organizing south of Alaska, already pulling in a large stream of moisture from north of Hawaii. (Image 1)

As the storm digs down the coast it will pull that moisture toward the frontal boundary. The atmospheric river is forecast to be just off the coast of the North Bay by 10AM Tuesday. (Image 2)

By Tuesday afternoon the AR will arrive on the Sonoma County coast. (Image 3)

By late Tuesday, the AR will be well established and start to sag south. (Image 4)

By 4AM Wednesday morning the core of the atmospheric river is forecast to be moving south of the North Bay and centered on the Santa Cruz mountains. (Image 5)

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography tracks AR events and predicts the height of the AR event at Bodega Bay (observing station) in the early morning hours of Wednesday. (Image 6)

By late Wednesday rain amounts will be impressive, from 2-4 inches in most areas. (Image 7)

By late on Thursday, additional rain may push the wettest hills above 6 inches, or more. (Image 8)

The AR is forecast to stall and pivot around the parent low pressure center on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing up to 12 inches of rain to areas of the coast and mountains from Big Sur to Santa Barbara. (Image 9)

Finally, another weaker storm will arrive Friday, before a another potentially strong storm by late on Sunday into Monday. Although not as strong as our Tuesday-Thursday storm, this is also expected to drop 2 or more inches of rain over the North Bay. If all of this takes place, by Wednesday February 3rd 7-10 inches or more of rain may have fallen in Sonoma County. (Image 10)