DRY FOR A WEEK. THEN (VERY) WET AGAIN?

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THE COMING WEEK

For the next week or so a high pressure ridge in the North Pacific will keep California mostly dry. The high looks pretty weak, so storms that pass to our north may brush us with clouds or even a shower at times.

Meanwhile, the main arm of the jet stream has shifted to our south, sending most of the steering winds south of California. But this may be short-lived.

FURTHER AHEAD

By late next week, another “extension” (eastern push) of the strong Pacific jet stream is forecast. This may shift the strongest winds north and reopen the storm door, as the upper air steering winds bring storms back toward California.

The models are already picking up on a first storm arriving in California around Saturday the 17th.

This is still 8-9 days away, and the details will no doubt change. But the emsemble models agree that California will go from dry this coming week, (below)

to wet beginning next weekend.

Although its too early to say if any new atmospheric rivers will reach California, some models suggest there may be a subtropical moisture tap with the first storm.

If so, this pattern would more closely resemble a typical El Nino winter setup. We’ll keep an eye on how things develop for the North Bay and post additional updates as necessary.