Data: Sonoma County, State Moving into Stage 3 With Steady Numbers

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As Sonoma County and much of California moves toward stage three of business reopening on Friday, a development that allows bars, health clubs, gyms, nail salons, movie theaters and other higher-risk facilities to resume operations, the tally of new cases continues at a steady rate.

In fact, although Sonoma County saw it’s single largest one day rise on Saturday, with 30 new cases reported, the weekly average has been relatively steady since mid-May. Additionally, with more testing comes more detected cases, and the county is now averaging between 700-1000 tests per day, more than at any time since the coronavirus emergency began. The focus of health officials continues to be on contact tracing to aggressively find and isolate new patients before they can spread the disease.

But, public health decisions are based upon a variety of factors, and Sonoma County continues to rank well in comparison with other California counties in a variety of metrics. Because of that, the county’s Health Officer Dr. Sundari Mase has hinted that an order allowing phase three reopenings will likely come later this week.

HOSPITAL IMPACT

Hospital impact is among the most important drivers of public health decisions, and in Sonoma County the hospitalization rate continues to be low and manageable by state standards.

According to the state department of health services, as of Sunday, Sonoma County hospitals were treating just 5 confirmed coronavirus patients, with 2 confirmed cases being treated in ICU beds. Another 29 patients being treated were suspected of being COVID-19 positive, pending test results.

All of those numbers were steady or below their peak levels, and below state thresholds for reopening. Additionally, although the county has reported 758 total coronavirus cases, the number of deaths stands at 4, a figure that has been steady for weeks and is among the lowest in the state as a percentage of total cases. Out of almost 35 thousand tests conducted in Sonoma County, 2.2 percent have come back positive.

CALIFORNIA NUMBERS

Looking more closely at California, after leveling off, new coronavirus cases have remained steady, even increasing in recent weeks. This development was expected by health officials as business reopening brings increasing contact between individuals, and state testing continues to expand.

Importantly, the number of daily deaths across the state has been falling slightly since late May.

And other metrics like hospitalizations, are relatively steady statewide.

In the end, public health officials in Sonoma County and across the state of California will be looking at multiple variables, from hospitizations to deaths, to new case levels, to determine if a pullback from reopening is required.

For Sonoma County, and much of the state, unless the data shows a renewed spike in new cases and hospitalizations, reopening will likely continue with a focus on mitigation. That means facial coverings, social distancing, hygiene protocols, and other safety measures will be a part of life across California for the forseeable future.