COOL THROUGH WEEKEND. RAIN FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER?

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Cold air has settled in place over California and the West, as a storm that brought light snow to the Sierra and the Rocky Mountain states moves east.

Cooler than normal temperatures will remain with us through the weekend before high pressure moves in with a gradual warming trend next week.

You can see the high pressure ridge forecast to be over us on Halloween, which should be perfect for Trick or Treating with highs in the 70s across the North Bay.

By the first few days of November a pattern change back to low pressure troughing may be underway. At first the rainfall will likely stay offshore, not even reaching the Pacific Northwest. Here’s total rainfall through November 1st on the European ensemble model.

However during the first 10 days of November, the models hint that progressively stronger storms may push into the PacNW and south into Northern California. Here’s an outlook for total precipitation through the 10th. Compare that with the graphic above.

Typically we start to see stronger storms pushing further south during November. That’s what the models are suggesting. You can see low pressure entending south along the West Coast into Oregon and Northern California through the first week of November.

The GFS model hints that the jet stream may drop south over California around the 9th-10th, which suggests a stormy period for Central California and the North Bay. Still, that’s pretty far out there in the forecast range but we’ll be watching this trend.

There are also signs that the moisture we receive may be pulled from the warmer Central Pacific, which would be typical of an El Nino pattern. So, mild rains rather than cold ones. The temperature anomaly forecast for the first 10 days of November backs up this idea, showing us moving from a cool pattern to a relatively mild one across California and the West.

Finally, right now the 30 day precipitation outlook suggests we may see above average rainfall for November. Again, this is a long range forecast, but tantalizing none the less.

So, that’s the best guess for now. Cool and pleasant through this weekend, then warming a bit next week. And, progressively in the first 10 days of November, the suggestion of storms returning with stronger ones possible around the 9th-10th. We’ll keep watching to see how this pans out.

Stay tuned!