Confidence Increasing for Significant Rain Next Weekend

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As weather condition gradually improve over the North Bay, 2700 firefighters working the Glass Fire have been successful in holding and strengthening fire lines around the perimeter of the blaze, which is now almost 64 thousand acres, with 17 percent containment as of Sunday morning.

Attention is beginning to turn to a major shift in the weather pattern over Northern California next weekend. Forecast models are coming into agreement that the first significant rains of the season will make it to the Bay Area by next Saturday, bringing a dose of much needed rain to the area.

Here are how the forecast models look for next weekend. This is currently a long range outlook, but general agreement among the various models gives forecasters a growing confidence that rains will arrive. The timing and amounts of precipitation are very likely to change before the arrival of the storm.

The images below show the GFS, European and Canadian model versions of the storm next Friday and Saturday, as well as each model’s outlook for total rainfall by Monday. Rain forecasts by Monday for the North Bay currently range from about a quarter inch on the GFS model, to over 2 inches on the Canadian model.