CHRISTMAS WEEK FORECAST: WHEN WILL THE RAIN RETURN?

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We can expect mostly sunny and quite cold weather through the upcoming weekend. After that, things may get more interesting.

First though, high pressure pressing in from the north is giving California clear skies. A healthy early season snowpack can be seen in the Sierra, where 3-6 feet of new snow fell in the past week. (Image 1)

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By this coming Saturday, high pressure will nose into California. (Image 2)

With no storms on the horizon, it will stay colder than normal for the next week at least. (Image 3)

By the middle of next week, the European and Canadian models show rain trying to push into California. (Image 4) Over the past 24 hours, both models have been wavering on the strength of this system. For its part, the GFS model keeps this system far to the north, with no impact on California.

Whatever happens with the possible storm for the 21st, all models and their ensembles agree that high pressure and warmer temperatures will be with us by the 25th, Christmas Day. (Image 5) This will most likely bring warming temperatures to California through the end of the month of December. (Image 6)

As you might expect, all models show a dry period setting up for the end of December. (Image 7)

By the 2nd week of January, the European long range model shows rain once again beginning to push south into California. (Image 8)

Although some are wetter, some drier, all of the long-range models show at least some rain reaching California and the North Bay by the 2nd week of January. This is the European outlook. (Image 9)

So, not a disaster, but not as wet as we have been over the past few weeks. So far in December, the North Bay and most of California is running ahead of normal for the month. (Image 10)