BETTER AIR COMING, NORTH BAY RAIN STILL LIKELY MONDAY

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Even as unhealthful air hangs over the North Bay, the forecast hints at improvement for the weekend. On Friday air quality levels were still in the moderately unhealthful range.

As the westerly sea breeze kicks in later on Friday, the persistent smoky air will be slowly scoured out of the valleys of the North Bay. You can see the smoke in NW California in this satellite view. Although the flow in our direction is now less, there is very little air movement to clear us out until the westerly breezes ramp up.

Here’s the forecast for Saturday afternoon as the westerly breeze kicks in. Good news.

Meanwhile, the big story is the first real rain of the season, arriving Monday. You can see the deeping low pressure center and cold front dropping south from Alaska.

The models are pulling back just a bit, showing the cold front pretty much washing out somewhere between the North Bay and the Bay Area. A couple of models like the GFS show a sharp cutoff over the North Bay, others like the European bring the rain further south.

The WPC outlook and the National Blend of Models still show us getting a decent early season soaking.

So, take your pick. The National Weather Service is giving Santa Rosa about a 50 percent chance of getting a quarter inch between early Monday and early Tuesday. Definitely cover the outdoor furniture, as the high end totals could approach a half inch across northern Sonoma County, Mendocino County and Lake County.

Finally, with the incoming storm and persistent low pressure in the Eastern Pacific, California should stay a bit cooler than normal over the next 10 days. It should feel like fall!