Bay Area Sees Drop in ICU Patients, Officials “Cautiously Optimistic”

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For the fourth straight day Saturday, Bay Area hospitals recorded a drop in the number of patients in ICU beds regionwide, an early indication that shelter-in-place may well be turning the curve of coronavirus spread across the Bay Area.

On Saturday, the number of ICU patients was 179, down from a peak of 199 on Wednesday of last week. The total number of COVID-19 hospitalizations stood at 427 Saturday, down from 445 on Saturday.

At the same time, the number of total Bay Area coronavirus cases rose to 4411, and four new deaths brought the total number to 117.

The measures of ICU usage and hospitalizations are considered more reliable indicators of the spread of the virus because they do not rely on testing. And, because they usually measure patients with advanced symptoms of COVID-19, health officials believe they actually lag two or more weeks behind the actual trends. Which means the region, in seeing declines in ICU admissions and hospitizations, could be on the downward side of the virus curve.

Coronavirus researchers in the Bay Area increasingly believe that the virus may have arrived well before the first positive test result in late February, perhaps as early as December when it may have been mistaken for the flu.

Still, Bay Area epidemiologists say it is too early to relax restrictions on social distancing, as doing so before the virus is more contained risks setting off another rise in infections as the virus renews its spread through the region.