April May Go Out Like a Lion.

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We’ve been waiting and watching signs of a possible pattern change for late in April, and the models are finally in agreement that it’s coming.

As you know, we’ve been pretty reluctant to jump on board the storm train, but in this case it may now be justified. Hear us out.

All of the long range models have seen the trend for some time, but they’ve had such a bad record this La Nina year, we couldn’t believe them. But with rain possibly inbound for Sunday, and now within the 5 day window, we’re ready to say a significant storm, by April standards, is on the horizon.

By late in the weekend, low pressure will be overhead, allowing a storm with a nice tap of moisture to barrel into California. (Images 1 and 2)

Now, this isn’t really a surprise. We’ve been talking about the various “teleconnections” lining up for some time. But this time it appears the factors have actually come together to draw the jet stream south, and bring rain to us, and not just Washington and Oregon. Here is the projected jet stream by the weekend. (Image 3)

How much rain, and when? Models show the rain arriving during the day Sunday and continuing into Monday. Sonoma County and the North Bay could receive anywhere from a third to a full inch of rain. (Images 4, 5, 6)

So, batten down the hatches for Sunday and Monday. It looks like we will at least get wet. And in this dry water year, any moisture is appreciated. How wet? We’ll just have to wait and see.