ANOTHER WEEK OF DRY?

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The Eastern Pacific atmophere is currently locked in place, and there is very little to suggest that setup will change anytime soon. That means storms headed for California will continue to be sent north, keeping us dry.

Still, there is some hope for a change in the long range forecast. More on that below!

CURRENTLY

High pressure is holding steady out in the Pacific to our west, keeping us dry. Meanwhile, a deep low is bringing very frigid temperatures and some snow from the Midwest to the East Coast.

The blocking high pressure out in the Pacific is unusually strong. You can see it here on the global models.

One reason for this may be sea surface temperatures, which remain very warm in the ocean off the West Coast. (yellow circle) Meanwhile, a weak La Nina (cold surface water) is shown off the coast of South America. (black circle)

WILL IT CHANGE? AND WHEN?

Yes, it will change, but there is lots of uncertainty as to when. One major pattern that can impact our weather is the Madden Julian Oscillation. It is forecast to enter phase 3 (lots of convection/thunderstorms over the Indian Ocean) in about a week or so. (Green forecast line) All things being equal, that can mean a shift toward wetter weather for the West Coast of North America.

So, are we seeing this show up in the long range outlooks? Well, yes and no.

The European has the ridge of high pressure retracting enough to allow cold air and maybe a storm in around next weekend, the 25th.

But, since the cold air is arriving from over land, not the ocean, rainfall may be scant.

Overall, the long range outlooks don’t show any significant shift to wetter weather for Northern California until the 2nd week of February. And even then, it’s not a particularly strong shift, but at least all of the models are seeing it.

Stay tuned for updates!