A WET AND WILD WEEKEND FOR THE NORTH BAY
BIG PICTURE
A subtropical moisture plume will take aim at Northern California beginning Friday, and continuing Saturday. The North Bay will be at the southern edge, but we should pick up significant rain.
CHANGES LATE IN THE WEEK
After a dry and cool week, everything changes late Thursday. For the past 48 hours forecast models have been consistent in showing the jet stream splitting the persistent high pressure dome off the California coast. This will allow a low off the British Columbia coast to drive moisture into Northern California starting Friday.
Moisture values will be pretty high. The Scripps AR forecast is for a weak to moderate event along the Sonoma, Mendocino and Humboldt coasts late Friday through Saturday, possibily into Sunday.
Or, for those who prefer the more colloquial term, a Pineapple Express originating near the Hawaiian Islands.
As for rain, here is the National Blend of Models outlook for rainfall by Monday. This pretty much averages all of the different models. Notice the big dropoff south of the Golden Gate, just like we saw earlier in the season.
You can see the North Bay is forecast to pick up from 1.5 to 3 inches with more likely in the coastal hills. This will be a warm rain, with very high snow levels in the mountains.
There will be a final burst of rain late Monday as the front finally pushes through. Then we stay dry for a few days, but the European model (below) has another storm system arriving next Saturday the 8th. At this point the GFS doesn’t.
For now though the main takeaway is the return of rain to the North Bay from late Friday through Saturday….and possibly continuing into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will be highest to the north, and drop off to the south.
We’ll have more updates as conditions warrant.
Author: newsofthenorthbay
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