A RETURN OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND

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The topsy turvy models have begun to settle on a solution for the coming weekend that would bring the North Bay two rain events. Neither looks to be significant, but each has the potential to drop about a half inch of rain across our area.

SHORT TERM

You can see storms brewing in the North Pacific Ocean Tuesday. (Image 1)

By early Friday, a storm is forecast to spin up to our northwest, and drop into California. It will be weakening at it arrives.

Both of the weekend storms will be squeezed between high pressure to the east and west, dropping own just off the coast. This will limit their strength and the amount of moisture they can bring us. (Image 2)

The first storm on Friday may drop around a third to half inch of rain. (Image 3) Expect that number to change as Friday approaches and the models get a better handle on the system.

The first storm should be cleared out by later Friday. Saturday will bring fair weather. By early Sunday though another, stronger storm arrives. (Image 4) This one looks to have a slightly more robust moisture feed, but most of that moisture may be directed north of us.

By Monday, the total of the two weekend storms may reach an inch of rainfall. (Image 5)

After these storms, high pressure will build back in, with fair but cool weather through the 9th. After the 10th or so, low pressure may drop into the West, but likely too far east to give us many storms. (Image 6)

And, the outlook through mid-February looks drier than normal. (Image 7)

We should keep in mind that the long range models are often slow to pick up on large scale pattern changes, and historically California has seen good rains and snows kick in around March. So, expect this outlook to change as February goes on and more data is gathered.

We’ll keep you up to date as changes happen.