A (BRIEF) COLD BLAST OF WINTER

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BIG PICTURE

Warm spring weather will continue through Thursday with highs in the upper 70s for most of the North Bay. A big change begins on Friday with cool rain arriving late and lasting into Saturday. Saturday will be cool and blustery with highs in the 50s. Then a warming and drying cycle begins again next Sunday.

DETAILS

Spring is cutoff low season along the West Coast, when low pressure aloft gets cutoff from the main circulation and wanders down the coast. The exact track of these storms is hard to predict, and this one arriving on Friday is no exception. Expect the details of the forecast to change in the next few days.

SATELLITE

A beautiful view of the Golden State on Tuesday with the prominent snowpack visible in the Sierra and other mountain ranges of the West.

Warm weather under a high pressure ridge will continue through Thursday. But this high pressure system will be squeezed and ejected to the east beginning Thursday, with a cutoff low arriving off the coast of California Friday.

The exact track of the low isn’t certain, but most models show it bringing significant cold and rain to the North Bay by late on Friday.

The rain may be steady from late Friday into midday Saturday with showers around throughout the day. By Sunday the storm should be ejected south with slightly warming temperatures. Rain? Maybe a half inch or a bit more for the North Bay. And Saturday will be quite cool…with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Should probably mention that the European model forecasts up to double this amount of rain, an inch or more for the North Bay. This shows the uncertainty in forecasting the exact track and strength of the cutoff low. Is it onto something? Perhaps. We’ll see.

Sunday will be a transition day, with gradual warming kicking in again on Monday as weak high pressure returns to California. But, cold low pressure systems from the north are likely to keep frigid air over the West, so next week may remain a bit cool, likely cooler than this week. Stay tuned for North Bay updates.