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For wildfire weary residents of Northern California, the medium range weather trends bring a lot of good news. Major weather models are all lining up behind a forecast that could potentially bring significant rain to parts of Northern California and the North Bay.

Although the first real rain of the season, if it comes, will not end the threat of wildfire, it could reduce the immediate danger across large areas of Northern California.

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A broad trough of low pressure will set up off the West Coast this week, bringing cool temperatures.

By the weekend, a deep closed low pressure system is forecast to arrive along the coast near the Bay Area.

This low will interact with moisture in place to bring showers Sunday and perhaps into Monday. Although much could change in the coming week, for how both the European and GFS models agree on this rain arriving during the day Sunday.

How much rain may fall? Early forecasts are between a tenth and perhaps quarter inch of rain, but some forecasts are wetter. Obviously at this time of year any wetting rain that does fall is critical to improving near record low fuel moisture levels.

And here are two closer up views including the North Bay.

Of course, this far out the models could still turn wetter, or drier. Much depends on the exact track of the low pressure system as it moves down the West Coast. Still, for now the latest forecast models bring lots of hope that a shot of much-needed rain is on the way to Northern California, at perhaps the most critical time of year.

More updates to come this week.

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