Forecast Models: Nice, Cool Fall Weather May Continue Across NorCal

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The latest forecast models are in general agreement that Northern California may not see any major heat events through most of October.

The latest European model long range outlook has NorCal and the North Bay very close to normal through October.

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The American GFS long range outlook generally agrees, while it like the European sees warmer than normal temps across much of the Intermountain West.

A closeup look at the European model outlook for the middle of October. If it verifies, this is good news.

In terms of rainfall, we are typically quite dry in October, and the models predict this year will be no different. Here are the departures from normal as suggested by the European and American forecast models.

There are two main differences in the model forecasts. First, the GFS is somewhat drier overall. Second, the European model forecasts out 11 days further than the American GFS model. It sees some rain arriving in the first week of November. This is consistent with other models in showing rain beginning in early November.

The Climate Forecast System is especially bullish for rain in November.

The European model agrees, but is less bullish.

It will be interesting to see the European Model update on October 1st. Its forecast is based on conditions that existed on September 1st, while the more bullish CFS is updated daily.  It presumably has a better handle on the latest forecast trends. We like that forecast of a wet start to November….we’ll just have to wait for more data to come out.

Finally, just for fun lets look at what the CFS thinks about December. Pretty wet. I’d take this with a grain of salt until the other models start to suggest the same thing.

This rainfall pattern suggests the CFS model is factoring in a shift from La Nina to ENSO neutral or a weak El Nino (which IS the overall thinking as the winter goes on).

In any case, fun to look at and hope for.

More updates to come.

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