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The forecast models have become more bullish on a 5-6 day California heat wave that will begin late this week. The European model is hottest at present, showing heat pushing almost to the coastline throughout California. Other models are 5 degrees or more cooler than the European, but all now show a very intense, long lasting heat event for California and the North Bay.

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This is all based upon an evolving forecast for a unusually intense upper air high pressure center that will spread from the Great Basin into California late in the week, reaching a peak over the weekend.

Keep in mind the National Blend of Models and the GFS model are showing slightly cooler temperatures, but with that said the European deterministic model shows a five day heat wave building from Thursday through the weekend, and continuing through Tuesday.

By Sunday the heat peaks, but only slightly cooler temperatures are forecast through Tuesday.

Again, it should be noted that this is a possible worst case forecast. The National Blend of Models and GFS model are somewhat cooler, though still hot.

A lot will depend on how far toward the coast the heat extends. Forecasts call for the inland North Bay to be from 98-110 degrees over a 4 to 5 day period. As you can see, this outlook has Santa Rosa on the edge of the 100 degree bubble. This may be conservative. Expect most major cities in the North Bay to exceed 100 degrees on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

One key point about this heat event is that in almost all of the state, the marine layer is compressed and heat extends nearly to the coast. This is a main driver of heat across the North Bay, and a factor that has changed somewhat from earlier forecasts.

By Wednesday the 7th, after about five days of heat, the forecast finally shows significant cooling.

We’ll update this forecast as conditions change, but prepare for heat advisories and warnings to be issued by the NWS over the long Labor Day weekend.

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