WARM AND DRY FOR NOW. COOLER WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PATTERN CHANGE TO STORMY STILL ON TRACK!

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As of Friday there was some good news for Californians pulling for a wet end of October. The latest model runs have doubled down on rain, with many trending wetter for now. Let’s hope this continues.

NOW THROUGH SUNDAY

As of Friday afternoon, although all is quiet and dry in California, big things are already brewing in the North Pacific. (Image 1) The synoptic pattern is becoming more progressive, with a low pressure trough expected to set up off the West Coast this coming week. (Image 2)

By Sunday we’ll be brushed by the first cold front. It may bring showers to the North Bay. Not much, but a start. This is the Canadian outlook. (Image 3) Others are similar.

THE WEEK AHEAD

After that, things change. As the low pressure trough pushes south, we may see shortwave disturbances spin toward the coast. Showers may arrive Wednesday and Friday. Or they may stay north. The models are split on that.

There is better agreement on next weekend. All models show a relatively strong storm arriving around Saturday. (Image 4)

Other pulses of rain may come soon after as shortwaves (hard to predict this far out) rotate into California. Most models show some nice rain totals by the end of next weekend. (Images 5, 6, 7) As you might notice, the Canadian and the European models are wetter than the GFS.

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND

And, after next weekend? The longest range models show the “troughiness” and stormy weather may continue for a few days after next weekend. The GFS shows rain continuing to accumulate through the 30th. (Image

 

So, not bad if it happens. We’re all a bit skeptical at this point but the signals are getting stronger the closer we get. The Climate Forecast System weeklies are still all in on wetness for California through October 28th. (Image 9)

Even better, the European ensemble forecast, the average of about two dozen model runs, is currently getting wetter. (Image 10)

Three inches in Sonoma County by Oct 25th? We’ll gladly take half of that.

Let’s continue to cross our fingers!

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