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An emerging pattern off the West Coast should bring the return of moderate rain to the North Bay by Monday, and again on Thursday of the coming week. The details may change, but models are in strong agreement on the general trends.

On Friday, the North Pacific showed lots of evolving storm activity. (Image 1)

A few showers from a weak system will pass mainly north of us on Saturday, but as a low pressure trough pushes south over the weekend, rain will become more likely. (Image 2)

By early Monday all forecast models predict the arrival of a bit stronger storm. (Image 3) This may drop about a half inch of rain in the North Bay. The GFS model is in the middle of the forecast range. (Image 4)

After that we’ll stay dry until Thursday November 4th, when a second, slightly stronger storm is due to arrive. (Image 5) This one may drop about an inch of rain (current estimate) bringing the total from the two storms to 1.5 to 2 inches. This is the European model estimate. (Image 6) It’s currently the most conservative.

The long range models also see this emerging pattern for the first and second weeks of November. (Image 7)

So that’s good news. With our ground recently saturated, rain like this will spur increased runoff, which will make it into our reservoirs.

Further ahead? Well the Climate Forecast System has suddenly become quite bullish about our rain chances in November….and December. (Image It could be sensing a change in a seasonal pattern like the Madden Julian Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). More about that in future posts.

In any case, all of that is much too far out in the future to have any confidence in the forecast, but the optimism is welcome! We’ll have more on the upcoming storms as their arrival approaches.

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