SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND? CAN’T BE RULED OUT.

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If you’re hoping for a bit of reprieve from fire season worries, the forecast for this week and next weekend holds some hope.

It is important to say that rain in mid-June is fairly rare for the Bay Area, but not unheard of. At the same time, any forecast of even showers has to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, here is how the weather forecast models are trending.

A COOL WEEK AHEAD

As we look at the Sunday satellite picture (Image 1) we see no marine stratus along the coast from the Bay Area north. This is mainly due to a pressure gradient caused by low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Another low moving in behind this one will deliver cool weather (but not rain for now) to California in the coming week. (Image 2)

Inland, we can expect highs from Monday-Wednesday in the 70s, and mostly in the high 50s-60s along the coast with possible drizzle at times.

CHANGES ON FRIDAY

By Friday a stronger low pressure system is forecast to dig south toward the Bay Area. (Image 3)

The jet stream is also forecast to dip south, toward California. (Image 4)

This system will have a decent moisture source for June, and is expected to bring rain to Northern California by sometime Friday into Saturday. (Image 5)

RAIN FOR THE NORTH BAY?

If you want to be certain to see rain, head north. Some of the models are forecasting light rain, or showers, reaching the North Bay on Saturday. We are not taking the bait for now. But it is fairly certain some rain will moisten parts of Northern California on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model thinks we’ll get wet (Image 6),

the European model, not so much. (Image 7)

What’s our take? For one, the models a week out tend to be overly optimistic in terms of precipitation. However, virtually all of the ensemble models (multiple runs averaged together) suggest showers are a definite possibility. (Image

The coming days will bring more clarity, and we will update this North Bay forecast when more data is available.

The takeaway for now is that cooler weather, and an increasing onshore flow of moist marine air will help to lessen fire dangers this week. That’s good news. Of course any rain (this storm should not bring lightning or thunderstorms) would be the best-case scenario.

Keep your fingers crossed!

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