Sonoma County Staying with Late May Forecast for Virus Peak

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Despite new forecasts from the University of Washington-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Sonoma County’s Public Health Officer Dr. Sundari Mase says she will continue to rely on county funded modeling that shows a peak of coronavirus cases will come in late May or early June across Sonoma County.

On Sunday, the Institute released new modeling results that forecast the peak of the coronavirus surge, and resulting healthcare use in California, will occur much earlier, on April 17th.  On Wednesday, that date was further revised to April 13th.  The modeling provides forecasts at the state level only and factors in the results of shelter-in-place and social distancing.

The Institute’s modeling relies on real-time data showing the trajectory of illness and hospitalizations, and uses that data along with social distancing protocols in place to forecast how the pandemic will play out in the days ahead.   The University of Washington model is widely used by both states and the federal government as one tool in determining how to allocate healthcare resources.

Less than a week ago, Sonoma County released results of a model it commissioned from researchers at the Imperial College of London, which forecast the peak of the virus in Sonoma County would occur approximately 60 days into the future, in late May or early June, at which time the county would need 1500 beds to care for coronavirus patients.

On Tuesday, Mase said that model would continue to inform local healthcare decisions, and that she expected results to be updated in the coming days as more data is processed.

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