Heavy Rain Sat Night/Sunday, Kincade Debris Flows Possible

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With the arrival of the first Atmospheric River of the season, emergency officials are watching the Kincade burn area closely this weekend.

Forecasted heavy rains, coupled with fire denuded hillsides will create the potential for rapid runoff, erosion, and possible debris flows.  A real concern is also the movement of ash and chemical residue into local streams and rivers.

The forecasted Atmospheric River is still pointed at the Bay Area and central coast.  But the North Bay will be impacted as well, especially Saturday night and Sunday morning.

The storm will be with us through the weekend, here is the European forecast.

As for rain, we’re expecting 2-5+ inches across the North Bay and Sonoma County by Monday.  Hills and mountains will be especially hard hit due to the orographic nature of the rain (more rain as air is forced to rise).  Thus the worries for the Kincade burn area.

Here’s the high resolution NAM forecast…notice the greater amounts (over 5 inches) in the hills and mountains of the North Bay.

Here’s the WPC average of many models.  Once again, lots of rain everywhere, but especially in the hills.

News of the North Bay will continue to monitor the storm, and give you updates as conditions warrant.




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