Finally, Rain is on the Horizon!

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After a long anxious wait by nervous Californians, it appears the first sign of significant rain is starting to appear on weather forecast models.

The change in our weather pattern is just starting to show up on long range models which show low pressure pushing south and showers reaching the North Bay beginning around November 20nd and beyond.

Forecast models are notoriously unreliable that far out, but the good news is that more model runs are coming into agreement on the pattern shift.

The American model, the GFS, is showing low pressure off the coast by the 20th.

Even better, the ensemble runs of the GFS and Canadian models, which use an average of lots of model runs, are showing rain pushing in around the same time frame.

A few model runs are even more favorable for rain by the 22nd of the month.  Those show a chance of well over 2 inches of rain reaching Sonoma County.

More agreement comes from the CFS long range outlook, which shows low pressure and stormy weather pushing south in the days just before Thanksgiving.

Finally, the jet stream forecast for November 18th (first image), and November 21st (2nd image) from the GFS looks good for Northern California.

So, a lot of hopeful signs out there that our wait for rain may end in about two weeks time.  News of the North Bay will continue to provide updates as the forecast models hopefully come into even closer agreement as we get further into November.

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