Spring Turns on the Heat!

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A spring cold front swooped through the North Bay early Saturday, giving us breezy, cool and partly sunny skies.  Here is the frontal passage on satellite.

The cold front produced only a few showers, but its main impact was drizzle along the coast as the stratus layer was compressed.

As the disturbance heads east, we can look for a big time warm up beginning on Easter Sunday, and continuing through midweek as strong high pressure builds in.  Unlike last time, an offshore flow will set up, giving us even warmer temperatures.  By Tuesday and Wednesday, mid to upper 80s with some 90s thrown in will be common across Sonoma and Napa and Lake counties.

Here is the forecast for the strengthening high pressure dome from Sunday into Wednesday.

And expected high temperatures by Wednesday.  Don’t be surprised if they top out even higher as an offshore breeze develops. There should be pockets of 90s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

By later in the week, a low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest will shove the high eastward, giving us cooler temperatures, and maybe, just maybe a few showers sometime next weekend.  Still most of the moisture should stay north, or be confined to the Sierra.

However, very long range models suggest perhaps a shot at some measurable rain by May 2nd.

But, let’s be honest.  That’s too far out in the future to have much confidence in the forecast.

For now the big takeaways are a gloriously sunny Holiday Weekend, followed by much warmer high temperatures through the middle of the coming week!


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